Timber REITs in 2011: Big Decisions, Key Benchmarks and Final Results

Early in my investing career, I bought shares of Crown Pacific Partners, a timberland-owning firm headquartered in Portland, Oregon. During market declines in the late 1990s, the firm subsidized its shareholder distributions through borrowing and cash generated from non-organic business activities. In other words, the firm ate its seed corn. Crown Pacific filed for bankruptcy in 2003.

My shareholding experience with Crown Pacific influences my research to this day; it provided valuable lessons on the available (and unavailable) levers for cash generation and risk mitigation with timberland investment vehicles. At the end of the day, timberland owning firms – such as public REITs Plum Creek (PCL), Potlatch (PCH), Rayonier (RYN) and Weyerhaeuser (WY) – must embrace situations imposed by external markets and optimize firm performance for shareholders. How did timber REITs fare in 2011?

Big Decision in Tough Markets

Potlatch leadership dug deep in late 2011 to make the sector’s “stone cold decision of the year” to reduce dividends and harvest levels. These decisions by the PCH Board and senior management (1) placed long-term asset values and maximization over short-term yields and (2) embraced the realities of knowable, quantifiable impacts on wood markets relative to speculative forecasts of key demand drivers. Cheers.

Equity markets embraced the resulting 39% reduction in Potlatch’s yield. While share volume spiked on the day of the announcement, PCH’s share price declined 2.2% after two days of “post announcement” trading. This left its dividend yield at 4.1%, in line with the other public timberland-owning REITs. According to the FTR Index, the timber REIT sector now has a 4.0% dividend yield.

Timber REITs and Timberlands Outperform US Treasuries Long-Term

U.S. Treasuries remain a common benchmark for private timberland investments. Why? Relative safety and low risk over long time frames. However, U.S. Treasuries, thanks to a robust secondary market, are more liquid than private timberlands, making them convenient benchmarks for publicly-traded timber REITs, as well.

We also care about Treasury yields because when they increase, so do interest rates on fixed-rate mortgages. This increases the cost of buying homes and decreases the demand, and prices, of those homes, which can slow the economy. This coincides with another reason why timberland investors take such a strong interest in Treasuries:  they affect the costs of building and buying homes, which influence the supply and demand of forest products such as lumber, OSB and plywood.

On an annualized basis and year-to-date, how have timberland investment yields benchmarked to 10-year US Treasuries? For the ten year period from 2001 through 2010, both private (less liquid timberlands) and public (more volatile timber REIT stocks) investment vehicles outperformed US Treasuries: timber REITs returned 6.65% annually, private timberlands according to NCREIF returned 6.82% per year, and US 10-year Treasuries returned 3.99% per year on average.

Conclusion: Timber REIT Kudos for 2011

In 2011, timberland-owning REITs, as a sector and led by Rayonier’s 27% gain, outperformed the S&P 500. As measured by the Forisk Timber REIT (FTR) Index, publicly-traded timber REITs returned 5.69% versus 0.00% for the S&P. The FTR Total Returns Index, which accounts for dividend distributions, earned 9.62% in 2011.